Eight in 10 homes at high risk of flooding are in towns and cities

29 April 2026

Eight in 10 (80%) homes deemed to be at high-risk of flooding are now in England's towns and cities - equivalent to 839,000 homes - according to new analysis of flooding data by the National Housing Federation*.

Flood risk in urban areas is growing due to a rapid rise in instances of surface water flooding across England. Properties at high-risk of surface water flooding have increased threefold since 2018, whereas the risk from rivers and sea has doubled in the same period. According to the Environment Agency, a home is considered to be at “high risk” of flooding when it has at least a one in thirty chance of being flooded each year.

The rise in surface water flooding is due to a combination of climate change related extreme rainfall and other factors including ageing infrastructure and rapid urbanisation. There are now four times more properties at risk of flooding from surface water than from rivers and the sea, and this risk is set to continue worsening in the coming years. Environment Agency projections show properties at risk of surface water flooding are set to treble over the next 50 years, compared to a 90% increase in properties at risk from river and seas.

The increasing problem of surface water flooding poses a specific threat to our country’s social homes, which are predominately situated in urban areas. In the ten worst affected urban constituencies in England, an average of one in four households lives in social housing, compared to one in six nationally.

For social housing residents on the lowest incomes, the personal costs of flooding can be devastating. Social tenants are also less likely to have contents insurance due to the cost involved, leaving them more exposed to financial losses from water damage. Only around one in three of the poorest households in England have contents insurance compared with nine in ten homeowners. The average home insurance flood claim for a household in 2024 was £1,100.

According to analysis from Zurich Insurance, the disruption caused by repairs and relocation also creates additional, hidden costs which are felt disproportionately by social rental households. These can range from disruption to childcare to loss of earnings due to unpaid time off work. These costs total an average of £3,280 per household, which equates to over a month’s worth of income for the average social tenant’s household income (13%) compared to 6% of annual income for homeowners.

The risk of flooding to all the country’s homes is escalating. Last year the National Flood Risk Assessment found that around 6.3 million properties – or one in four – in England are currently at some risk of flooding, with some of the poorest constituencies, where residents face high levels of social deprivation, most at risk.

Recognising the threat that climate change brings, housing associations in high-risk areas are taking action, including conducting climate risk assessments, providing resident support and implementing property flood risk measures. The government has also taken steps to address the escalating flood risk, committing £10.5bn to make the country more flood resilient in the coming years. However, given the escalating nature of the risk the country needs a long-term strategy to deal with it.

The National Housing Federation is calling on the government to adopt clear and measurable flood resilience targets and standards which would better enable housing associations to take a long-term proactive approach to managing this risk. As part of this, is it essential that we improve data on flooding so that social housing providers, and all those responsible for protecting homes long term, have a comprehensive understanding of the risk to their homes.

Alistair Smyth, Director of Policy and Research at the National Housing Federation, said: "This analysis underscores the risks that social housing faces from flooding. With surface water flooding a fast-growing threat in towns and cities, this poses a direct risk to people and families living in social housing.

"Our climate is changing faster than our infrastructure can handle and social housing residents are more exposed, less protected and least able to absorb the financial shock when floods hit. While housing associations operating in higher risk areas are investing significant time and resource into protecting residents, this is a national risk that needs a national response.

"We welcome the significant steps the government has already taken on flood resilience. However, if we are to manage flooding effectively over the long term, we need to move to a proactive approach where flood resilience is baked into how we manage our homes and support our communities.”

* NHF analysed Environment Agency data showing the number and proportion of homes at high risk of flooding in parliamentary constituencies. Data for flooding risk from surface water and from rivers and sea was combined to identify total high risk. Census 2021 data for parliamentary constituencies was used to identify the number of total households and households in social homes.

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Eight in 10 homes at high risk of flooding are in towns and cities

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